Event Type
Research Presentation
Academic Department
Mathematics and Statistics
Start Date
25-4-2022 12:00 AM
End Date
25-4-2022 12:00 AM
Description
Current research has been performed as an undergraduate thesis at Hollins University. The goal of this research is to perform time series analysis on COVID-19 daily new cases in the United States using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. We explore the reasonability of the predictive model. We divided our model into test and training set and then later compared our predictions with the test data. We used measures such as Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error and, Mean Absolute Percentage Error to check the validity of our model. We observed that the predictions do not seem to fluctuate a lot as the actual values do.
Time Series Analysis to Predict COVID 19 Mortality in the United States
Current research has been performed as an undergraduate thesis at Hollins University. The goal of this research is to perform time series analysis on COVID-19 daily new cases in the United States using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. We explore the reasonability of the predictive model. We divided our model into test and training set and then later compared our predictions with the test data. We used measures such as Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error and, Mean Absolute Percentage Error to check the validity of our model. We observed that the predictions do not seem to fluctuate a lot as the actual values do.
Comments
Under the direction of Dr. Julie Clark.